The file for this article contained an incorrect weather forecast. After all, it was from 2023, published a year ago. But it seemed appropriate, since it said, “A warm and wet spring is coming.” This is very much in line with his 24th actual spring prediction for Indiana.
But if you recall, the 2023 prediction was only half accurate. It was warmer than usual, but May and June in particular were drier than normal. Will this year’s prediction be 100% correct? Only 50% again? Or somewhere in between? Time will tell.
“It sounds like a broken record at this point, but for the three months of March, April, and May, conditions were above climatological averages,” said Beth Hall, Indiana state climatologist and Midwest Regional Climate Director. “It’s likely to be warmer and rainier than before.” Center based at Purdue University. “The signal for warmer-than-normal temperatures is stronger in northern Indiana than in southern Indiana. When it comes to precipitation, that reverses and we get a stronger signal in southern Indiana.”
beyond expectations
The three-year La Niña condition turned into El Niño in late 2023. El Niño refers to positive atmospheric pressure and rising sea surface temperatures in the distant Pacific Ocean, while La Niña develops below negative atmospheric pressure. – Normal sea surface temperature. These pressure changes affect airflow patterns in the upper atmosphere, which can influence global weather patterns.
Hans Schmitz, a Purdue Extension expert who studies weather, suggests that El Niño is clearly short-lived. It is likely to end in the spring and fall into a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation pattern in the summer.
“The trend is moving in that direction,” Hall explains. “Pressure remained positive during the winter, but each month when a new report is released, the pressure is lower than the previous month.”
Climatologists expect La Niña conditions to return by late fall, perhaps in time for another La Niña winter in the eastern Corn Belt. La Niña winters, at least recently, tend to be milder in the first half and more likely to snow in the second half.
“The effects of global warming and climate change are well established and appear to be outweighing the effects of phenomena like El Niño,” Hall said. “The effects of La Niña may not be the same as they were 10 or 20 years ago. The overall trend appears to be toward warming across the United States.”
freezing night
Despite the warming pattern and the forecast for a warmer-than-usual spring, we cannot rule out the possibility of cold enough nights this spring to kill fruit flowers or kill seedlings. can be accessed. Freeze risk tool On the MRCC website.
“Once you select a location, you can see the probability of a late freeze occurring on a given day based on historical information going back 30 years,” Hall says. “But as we get deeper into spring and worry that our crops will die in a day or two, we turn to local weather forecasts instead of relying on climate data.”
