Fans barely had time to catch their breath as the first group stage match of Euro 2024 came to a close. The top teams showed why they were the favourites, the bottom teams emerged and scored goals, and if this trajectory continues, it will be one of the best tournaments in recent memory.
But I’m getting ahead of myself. For now, here are six takeaways with the first third of the group stage completed.
Germany has shown they can win the tournament.
Any way you look at it, a 5-1 victory is a great result. But for Germany, it’s even better. After winning the 2014 World Cup, Germany has failed to reach the knockout stages in the past two World Cups, finishing fourth and third in 2018 and 2022, respectively. Their success at the Euros hasn’t been much better, either, reaching the semi-finals in 2016 before being eliminated in the round of 16 in 2020.
Germany needed to get off to a fast start in the tournament to solidify their status as favourites, and that was evidenced in their opening game of the tournament against Scotland. With five different players scoring goals, contributions from the bench and dominant performances all over the field, Germany demonstrated why they truly are one of the strongest teams at the Euros.
On the offensive side, 21-year-olds Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz made an immediate impact with goals inside the opening 20 minutes, striker Kai Havertz also scored from the penalty spot in the first half, and a fine goal from substitute striker Niklas Füllkrug in the second half confirmed the depth Germany have been missing up front for some time.
Midfielder Toni Kroos, who will retire from professional football after the tournament, played brilliantly for Germany. He completed 101 of his 102 passes and dictated the pace of the game throughout his 80 minutes on the field. In fact, Kroos’s long diagonal ball to Joshua Kimmich set up the right-back to play, eventually feeding Wirtz in front of the goal for the opening goal.
It may be too early to say if Germany’s defense is the best in the tournament, and we don’t know how good Scotland is, but limiting opponents to zero expected goals is no easy feat. Germany’s only defensive mistake was an accidental own goal from a header by center back Antonio Rudiger, but if Germany can maintain this level of excellence they will be difficult to stop for the rest of the group stage and beyond.
Croatia’s loss to Spain looked bad on paper, but now’s not the time to overreact
Losing 3-0 is never a good look for a team, especially one that Croatia has had success with over the years – they finished second and third in the 2018 and 2022 World Cups respectively – but panicking after this defeat is neither a necessary nor rational reaction.
While Croatia’s overall performance wasn’t all that great, the statistics make it clear that the game was much closer than the score would suggest: Croatia had more ball possession and more shots than Spain, winning on xG 2.38 to 2.01, according to FotMob.
That assessment of the game was borne out by the eyes of the crowd. Spain had three clear-cut chances in the first half, capped by goals from striker Alvaro Morata, midfielder Fabian Ruiz and defender Dani Carvajal. Croatia also had chances in the first 45 minutes, when winger Lovro Maier’s close-range shot hit the side netting and defender Joško Gvardior smashed the ball just past the outstretched leg of striker Ante Budimir.
Croatia finally had a chance to score in the second half after Spain defensive midfielder Rodri brought down Croatia striker Bruno Petkovic in the penalty area, earning a penalty kick. After Petkovic’s penalty was initially saved, the team appeared to have a chance to score when he crossed the ball and tapped it in, but the video assistant referee ruled that midfielder Ivan Perišić had entered the penalty area before the ball was kicked. As Perišić was the first player to touch the ball after the save, Croatia’s desperately needed goal was ruled out.
Ultimately, Croatia needs to tighten up their defensive line and be more decisive in front of goal, but after a dismal first game, it would not be a surprise to see the next two games go in their favour.
England need to assess their lineup situation urgently
On paper, England are in the top three teams in the entire tournament, and after their performance against Serbia I’m not confident that England can win the Euros.
England looked lackluster for much of the game. Midfielder Phil Foden, who had been named the Premier League Player of the Season just a month earlier, was absent. Striker Harry Kane is England’s all-time leading goalscorer, but Serbia denied him all but one of his chances. The only bright spot was midfielder Jude Bellingham, whose goal secured England the victory and whose overall high quality play prevented Serbia from consistently attacking the England defense.
Gareth Southgate has received a lot of criticism, but it’s not unreasonable to say England should do a better job of utilising their talented players. The next step for Southgate could be to add Cole Palmer, the Premier League’s young player of the year, to his squad. The 20-year-old has not been given a chance to play, and given Foden’s poor form playing out wide rather than in his usual central role for Manchester City, it would not be a surprise to see Palmer start in the upcoming game against Denmark.
A 1-0 win over Serbia all but guarantees England a place in the next round, barring one of the most shocking group stage exits in European Championship history. Success beyond the group stage is within reach for this England team, but they will need to address issues across the field quickly before that can happen.
Even if the result of the France-Austria match remains in doubt,
For most strong teams, beating a country ranked 25th in the FIFA world rankings by just one goal (and that was an own goal) would be a worrying sign. For France, this is just how they won. They won’t play the most beautiful, spectacular football that you would expect from a team of their quality, but they haven’t done that for a long time.
France defeated Morocco 2-0 in the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup. A fifth-minute goal from defender Theo Hernandez put France on the back foot, while Morocco finished the match with 62 percent possession and 13 shots. France’s defense held firm, however, and forward Randal Kolo Mouani scored a goal in the 79th minute to seal the game.
The 2018 World Cup semi-final was much the same: Belgium had 64% possession and nine shots, three of which were on target. France had 19 shots, five of which were on target, but only a header from defender Samuel Umtiti missed the target to advance to the World Cup final. To further underline this point, Germany had 68% possession in the Euro 2016 semi-final but lost 0-2 thanks to two goals from Griezmann.
So don’t worry about France, their performance was just a sign of things to come for a team that has shown time and again that this is how they play and how they win.
Three dark horses emerge from the remaining teams
Participating in an international tournament gives pundits and fans the opportunity to cast their picks as dark horses, and after their first series of matches, Slovakia, Romania and Turkey have solidified themselves as dark horse candidates for this tournament.
Slovakia’s historic 1-0 win over Belgium put them in firm control of the group, beating the most talented team in Group E. Belgium may not be at the level they once were in terms of talent, but they are still one of the top teams in Europe, making Slovakia’s win even more special.
Along with Slovakia at the top of Group E, the next dark horse is Romania. Their 3-0 win over Ukraine may not be as impressive as Slovakia’s victory over Belgium, but the decisive nature of this win only puts Romania one step further. Romania only had 28% possession but had five shots on target to Ukraine’s three, and according to FotMob, their xG was 1.20 to Ukraine’s 0.75. On paper, Ukraine looks like the better team, but Romania proved that individual players can only carry a team so far.
Last up is Turkey in Group F. Turkey’s win against Georgia is not as impressive considering it was Georgia’s first international tournament. However, Turkey took 22 shots, eight of which were on goal, and converted five big chances. Five players, except for midfield captain Hakan Calhanoglu, who won the Serie A Best Midfielder award for 2023-24, received a match rating of 8.3, according to FotMob. Better performances from the 30-year-old Calhanoglu, along with the continued success of his compatriots, will likely see Turkey advance to the next round and beyond.
Every team has the ability to advance
In most other tournaments, a fast start in the group stage is paramount, with teams not needing to rack up points to qualify for the top two places. In the Euros, the top four teams in third place qualify, so a fast start is helpful but not essential.
The 2016 Euros was the first tournament to feature 24 teams and a third-place playoff. In that tournament, two teams received four points and the other two three. In the 2020 Euros, three teams received four points and the final team received three points.
That being said, all any team needs is a win to qualify, and if past teams have proven anything it’s that a country essentially only needs a win or a draw to guarantee qualification, so even Scotland, who were thrashed 5-1 by Germany in the first leg, still have a chance to make the knockout stages.
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