There’s a full day of baseball ahead of us, but none more important than the Orioles vs. Yankees game in which Gerrit Cole will make his season debut.
Cole, who has been out since the spring with an elbow injury, is looking to get the season off to a strong start with a crucial game in the AL East standings, but can he be trusted as a heavy favorite?
Here’s how to bet on Wednesday’s entire MLB card:
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Root for Tarik Skubal, the AL Cy Young Award front-runner, as the Braves’ lineup struggles with its 20th-best OPS in June.
Skubal will face Braves right-hander Reinaldo Lopez, who continues to be a fade candidate with abysmal underlying metrics of a 3.61 xERA against a 1.69 ERA, per MLBStatcast.
Hunter Greene continues to emerge as a key cog in the Reds’ pitching staff, posting a 3.61 ERA, but his underlying numbers are also good, including a 3.14 xERA and a low hard-hit rate of 34% (79th percentile).
At the plus end of the scale, I’d bet that the Reds, who are eighth in OPS in June, will emerge as small underdogs and pull out a win.
Kyle Gibson remains a prime fade candidate, with a standout 4.82 xERA compared to a 3.44 ERA, he has the highest walk rate since 2020 and his fastball velocity is in the 9th percentile.
The Marlins have limited offensive potential, but with Gibson unable to limit hard contact, I believe the home team can outperform this price tag.
Ranger Suarez is currently atop the odds board for the National League Cy Young Award, but I wouldn’t bet on him against the Padres, who have few strikeouts and do a great job of bringing the ball to the plate and putting pressure on the opposition to pitches beyond home plate.
San Diego is in the top five in terms of striking out and limiting walks at an above-average rate, and although Suarez is relying on strikeouts more than ever, with a career-best strikeout rate of 27%, I think the Padres can stop their losing streak on the road here.
Kyle Hendricks is playing as an opener right now, and with his ability to withstand hard contact, I think he has a chance to limit the Giants’ runs with the wind blowing at Wrigley Field.
He’s in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate and 75th percentile in ground ball rate, which makes him a big impact in the weather at Wrigley that affects the ball.
Meanwhile, Howard is allowing hard contact on 42% of his batted balls, which would put him below major league average given enough innings, as is his ground ball rate, which is nearly 39%.
With Patrick Corbin pitching, betting on the other team is always a wise investment, especially in this instance.
Corbin will be facing the second-best team against left-handed pitching, a dire scenario for a left-handed pitcher who is in the first percentile in xERA (6.86) this season.
Brian Woo travels to Cleveland to help the Mariners extend their lead in the American League West after a strong start to the season despite injuries.
Wu owns a 1.07 ERA and has a walk rate of less than 2 percent, and his control will be on display Wednesday against Seattle with a disciplined Guardians squad.
Gerrit Cole will make his season debut on Wednesday and will be highly rated as the Yankees dominate against the Orioles.
But considering Cole’s pitch count and Aaron Judge’s possible injury, I’d bet long odds on the Orioles to win against the Yankees.
Cole Irvin will start for the Orioles, and his pinpoint control will likely keep the Yankees’ lineup in check, as they struggle against left-handed pitchers who rank 15th in OPS.
Ignore Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, who is pitching his worst game of the season.
He has a 4.08 ERA, but his xERA is 4.98 and his strikeout rate is his lowest since 2018. The Red Sox have been on a roll against the Blue Jays, winning both games they played in Toronto this week.
I bet on the sweep with plus money.
Both teams used several relievers on Monday, but I want to focus on the Twins’ reliable starter, Joe Ryan.
The Minnesota ace has seen his strikeout rate drop from 29% to nearly 27% this season, but his excellent fastball (95th percentile in runs value) has also lowered his walk rate.
He’s been far more reliable than Rays second-year pro Taj Bradley, who struggles to avoid hard contact (20th percentile) and relies heavily on strikeouts (31 percent).
The Mets’ seven-game winning streak looks set to extend to eight in Texas.
New York’s lineup is thriving, the Rangers are 22nd in OPS against lefties this season and have been impactful against Mets starter Sean Manaea.
Houston has been a disappointment this season, but I’m willing to bet cheap odds on the White Sox, the worst team in the AL.
The Astros remain an above-average hitting team against left-handed pitching, which should help them get back on track against Garrett Crochet.
Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner has been unreliable at home, posting a 6.89 ERA in six starts at Coors Field this season, which is a big problem against the best hitting lineups in baseball.
Tyler Anderson continues to have an unreliable record, posting a 4.66 xERA to go with his 2.58 ERA.
The left-hander walked over 10% of batters and struck out just 16% of the time (12th percentile).
Against a good team like the Brewers, who have a league-average walk rate against left-handed pitchers, I think Anderson will struggle.
The Athletics will struggle to deal with Cole Ragans’ pitching, who is 27th in batting average against lefties, but this would be a nice landing spot for the Royals as a modest championship favorite.
Game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.
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