On June 28, 1914, 110 years ago this month, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie marched through Sarajevo to inspect the Imperial Army. They were greeted with cheers, but among the crowd lurked an assassin intent on striking a blow for independence. When the Archduke’s motorcade took a wrong turn, two bullets from Gavrilo Princip killed them both.
Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Russia mobilized to defend Serbia, and Germany declared war on Russia. Allies France and Britain were drawn in, and eventually the United States. World War I killed nearly 20 million people and laid the groundwork for World War II, which killed at least three times as many and ultimately led to the creation of the state of Israel as a refuge for a long-oppressed people after the Nazi genocide of six million Jews.
The strange origin story of World War I shows how seemingly local events can spin out of control, and Israel now finds itself at the centre of a cataclysmic event that could unfold in the same way.
That is because the Gaza war, which Israel launched after Hamas massacred 1,200 people in Israel on October 7, has involved Iranian-led attacks on Israel on multiple fronts, including against Yemen’s Houthis (who have launched drones and missiles to disrupt global shipping to the Suez Canal) and especially Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
The Islamic fundamentalist terror group has had its way in its hapless host country, shelling the Jewish state for more than eight months in protest of solidarity with the people of Gaza, successfully forcing almost 100,000 Israelis along the border to flee their homes.
The number of bullets fired at Israel last week reached a record high — more than 200 in a single day — and Israel is seriously considering launching an all-out war against Hezbollah. The United States and France, which have historic interests in Lebanon, are rushing to mediate, drawing ridicule and resentment on both sides.
Israeli military planners are quite aware of the lessons of history against a two-front war that destroyed the likes of Napoleon and Hitler, but the situation is becoming too absurd, and of course escalation is inevitable if Hezbollah accidentally kills a lot of people, which is likely to happen soon.
In the event of war, the group predicts a long-range missile attack on Tel Aviv (about 100 miles south of the border) would wreak havoc on this important global city, a global center of high technology and filled with modern office buildings, potentially resulting in thousands of deaths, something Israel has never experienced on its soil.
Israel has made it clear that if this happens, it would launch a devastating attack on Lebanon’s infrastructure, which is the last thing the beleaguered country needs. Lebanon has not long ago endured 15 years of civil war and in recent years has been plagued by an influx of Syrian refugees. The Lebanese government (if it can still be called that) can barely pick up its garbage. But attacking Lebanon’s infrastructure may be the only way to deter Hezbollah at all.
The group’s estimated 30,000 fighters, all Lebanese although they often take orders from Iran, make up the country’s strongest military force and benefit from some limited local support.
Iran is expected to come to Hezbollah’s aid after it signaled its intention to attack Israel directly in April, launching a volley of some 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, most of which were repelled by Israeli forces backed by the US, UK and Jordan.
If a larger attack were to take place, Israel might consider striking Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz in an attempt to draw world powers into its plans for regime change in Iran. This would, of course, benefit the Iranian people, who deserve better than to be ruled by a fanatical theocracy running a police state.
This has frustrated Israel for over a decade because Iran insists on pursuing a nuclear weapons program and is already effectively a nuclear power. If it goes into the country, it will put nuclear weapons in the hands of one of the most destructive regimes in history and it sees the US as the “Great Devil.” Iran also sees the “Little Devil” Israel as a US vassal, which would make Iran very likely to attack US interests throughout the region.
Its presence provides a wide range of multifaceted targets. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the central hub for U.S. air operations, housing thousands of U.S. troops and serving as the headquarters for U.S. Central Command and U.S. Air Forces Central Command. The UAE and Kuwait are also involved. The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain and secures maritime shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. U.S. forces are involved in Syria, primarily to fight ISIS. The U.S. still maintains a military presence in Iraq to fight insurgents. U.S. troops are also stationed in Jordan.
If the US and Iran were to engage in direct hostilities, the big question is what Russia and China will do. They may try to take advantage of the chaos and take action, either against other countries such as Ukraine or the Baltic states in Russia’s case, or against Taiwan, which is perhaps the most dangerous scenario for the planet. If the latter happens in particular, the possibility of a modern-day world war is clear.
So how do we avoid all this? Returning to Israel, it may be a testament to history’s perverse humour that the reckless, far-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds the key to an alternative scenario in which none of the above happens.
Israel had hoped to remove Hamas from power in Gaza in exchange for the return of the hostages, but eight months later, with over 116 hostages still in Hamas’ hands, Hamas has not given in despite the blows it has taken. It is clear that the price Hamas is demanding in return for the return of the hostages is an end to the war without formally recognizing regime change in Gaza.
That would be very painful for Israel, but there are some positives. First, the hostages would probably come home. Second, Israeli intelligence expects Hezbollah to actually stop its attacks, breaking the domino effect mentioned above. Third, the Biden administration is trying to create a Western-Sunni-Israeli military alliance aimed at staving off Iranian interference and including an Israeli-Saudi peace deal.
In this alternative scenario, the Gaza-Lebanon quagmire would be more than just a problem for Israel to solve. Perhaps an alternative to Hamas could be successfully induced in Gaza. Either would require a lot of ingenuity and a lot of money. But it would also be possible to slowly bring Hezbollah and the remnants of Hamas into line, with the help of public opinion in both Lebanon and Gaza.
There is a strong argument to be made that this is a true win-win scenario for Israel, the West, and all Middle Easterners who live in a rational world whose goals are peace and prosperity. It is certainly risky, but if Hamas remains undeterred despite the punishment it has received so far, Israel can always resume the war, this time without the complication of hostages.
That would avert World War III, at least for now.
Dan Perry is a former Middle East editor for The Associated Press based in Cairo and Europe/Africa editor based in London. danperry.substack.com.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom, seeking common ground and finding connections.