UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed growing concern about escalating altercations and deadly border clashes between Israeli forces and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters.
He said on Friday that UN peacekeepers were trying to calm the situation and prevent “miscalculation” after both sides stepped up rhetoric, raising the possibility of an all-out clash.
“One rash action, one miscalculation, could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond borders and is frankly unimaginable,” Guterres told reporters. “Let me be clear: the people of the region, and the people of the world, cannot accept that Lebanon becomes another Gaza.”
The U.N. peacekeeping force UNIFIL and an unarmed technical observer force known as UNTSO have long been stationed in southern Lebanon to monitor hostilities along the Lebanese-Israeli border, known as the Blue Line.
“UN peacekeepers are on the ground working to de-escalate and prevent miscalculation,” Guterres said. “The world must say loudly and clearly: immediate de-escalation is not only possible, it is essential. There is no military solution.”
Hezbollah has fired rockets and drones into Israel since launching its war on Gaza in October last year, and Israel has responded with deadly air strikes and heavy artillery fire, leaving hundreds dead along the border and forcing tens of thousands to flee.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant previously vowed to “turn Beirut into Gaza.” This week Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that there would be “no restraints and no rules” if Israel launched a major attack on Lebanon.
“The Israelis will pay a huge price.”
Analysts say it’s unclear whether both sides are stepping up their threats as a deterrent or whether they are actually on the brink of all-out war. Regarding Israel’s war in Gaza, one expert said it’s not accurate to compare Palestinian militant groups to Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah is better trained, better organised and has more lethal weapons than the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, so I think Israel will pay a huge price for something that could have been avoided,” Hassan Barari, a professor of international studies at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.
Orna Mizrahi, a former official at Israel’s National Security Council, said neither option was good for the country.
“But the big question is how much damage will Israel suffer from this attack? I don’t think most in the government really want to get into a war, but I think it could happen,” she said.
Nasrallah’s comments have led many in Lebanon to brace for a bigger war, but some diplomats and analysts say his threats are aimed at countering escalating Israeli rhetoric.
Israel cannot allow the Hezbollah terrorist organization to continue to attack its territory and people. We will soon make the necessary decisions. The free world must unconditionally support Israel in its fight against the axis of evil led by Iran and radical Islam. Our…
— Israel Katz (@Israel_katz) June 21, 2024
“For me, this is part of a deterrence strategy,” said Hubert Faustmann, a professor of history and international relations at the University of Nicosia.
“There is a high risk that Israel will escalate the conflict with Hezbollah and enter into an all-out war, which I don’t think Hezbollah wants,” Faustman added, saying it showed what Hezbollah “is capable of” if that were to happen.
Hezbollah has signaled it does not want a broader conflict, despite steadily fielding more powerful weaponry.
Israel has the strongest military in the Middle East, but Hezbollah has thousands of fighters, including veterans of the Syrian civil war, and an arsenal of tens of thousands of missiles capable of hitting cities across Israel.
Iran also has a large drone fleet, one of which is believed to have made an extended flight over the port city of Haifa this week, highlighting the potential threat to key economic infrastructure, including the power system.
“A tough challenge for Israel’s air defense forces”
The broader escalation of tensions threatens to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, which has intercepted most of the hundreds of missiles fired by Hezbollah so far.
“I get the sense that Hezbollah feels it has some leverage over Israel because an escalating war could mean more damage in Lebanon or Syria, but it would also mean terrorism within Israel,” said Seth G. Jones, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
“Countering the wide range of rocket attacks coming from the north will be a big challenge for Israel’s air defense forces. It will be a big problem.”
Israel has suffered in Lebanon in the past: Following its 1982 invasion and the war that gave birth to Hezbollah, Israel spent nearly two decades maintaining a buffer zone before a second war broke out in 2006, lasting 34 days and leaving both sides bloody and deadly.
But more than eight months after the conflict began, it remains unclear when life will return to normal, and political pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu is growing.
Dozens of Israeli towns remain deserted, some 60,000 people have taken refuge in makeshift shelters, streets are deserted and some buildings bear the scars of rocket attacks, while some 90,000 people have fled southern Lebanon.
Sarit Zehavi, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who runs a think tank specializing in Israel’s northern border, said after Israel’s Oct. 7 trauma, few who left their homes will be ready to return as long as Hezbollah remains rooted along the border.
“For 17 years we have done nothing about this threat. To address it now would come at a very high price,” Zehavi said.
