DraftKings, the largest U.S. sportsbook by market capitalization, has begun offering odds on the U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials in select states, including Indiana, where the event will be held. Caesars Sportsbook also offered odds earlier this year.
Both proposals appear to be tests ahead of the Olympics, which represents huge untapped gambling potential in the United States.
SwimSwam checked the books Tuesday night and the only two races currently booked for this week’s trials are the men’s 200 backstroke and the women’s 200 breaststroke, both of which are overwhelming favorites to win according to the odds.
We will show you where the weaknesses lie in betting on Olympic sports. Lydia Jacoby She is the third most likely to win the race, despite saying on Tuesday that she would not be running the race.
Odds for the 200m breaststroke are Kate Douglas She is listed as the $500 favorite to win, meaning she has an 83.33 percent chance of winning. She is the American record holder, having run 2:19.30 in January, and is the top seed by 1.65 seconds. Lily KingThese two are further ahead of everyone else, but they are Douglas’ teammates. Alex Walsh (+1000) is a significant drop, but still gives him decent odds considering his seed time was just 2:25.25.
In the men’s 200m backstroke, Ryan MurphyThe two-time defending champion and 2016 Olympic champion is the heavy favorite at -1000, which means he has a projected probability of winning of 90.9%. Jack Akins (+700) is the next favorite with a 12.5% chance of winning.
In both cases, the implied probability of winning is quite different from the one chosen in our predictions (86.4% for Murphy and 92.1% for Murphy).
But in the 200 back, Destin Rasko was the second pick in the pick ’em contest, and given Rasko’s performance so far in the event, Murphy will likely have even more to choose from.
My guess is that if you predict Douglas and Murphy will win and bet on both of them, you will make about $3.20 on a $10 bet. Don’t spend your entire amount in one place.
