The latest opinion polls predicting seat-by-seat outcomes in the general election suggest the Conservative Party is only on track to retain one seat in Scotland.
Survation’s analysis shows Labour is on track to win a majority of 262 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives could win just 72 seats – less than half their worst election result since the party was founded almost two centuries ago.
In Scotland, a poll commissioned by Best for Britain shows the race is very close, but crucially, it is the first poll by the pollster since February to show the SNP leading Labour 37% to 30%.
The SNP would remain the largest party in Scotland, winning 37 seats, but Labour would trail by less than 2.5% in three seats and by less than 5% in a further four.
Opinion polls predict Labor will win 14 seats (all in the Mid-Belt), but if Labor wins some close seats as predicted, it could win as many as 21 seats.
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Importantly, the poll predicts the SNP will retain Na Helena an Iall, Labour’s main target.
John Swinney’s party will also retain all of its Glasgow seats but will lose South Lanarkshire after Hamilton and Clyde Valley, East Kilbride and Strathaven both flipped to the republic, while Labour incumbent Michael Shanks is expected to retain his seat in Rutherglen.
Labour is also predicted to do very well in the eastern part of the central belt, with seats in Lothian East, Cowdenbeath, Kirkcaldy, Livingston, Dunfermline, Dollar, Edinburgh North and Leith expected to be won.
Douglas Ross’s Conservative party will be left with just one MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale.
The Liberal Democrats are predicted to increase their seats in Scotland from three to five in 2019. Polls show they are on track to win in North East Fife, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Orkney and Shetland, Edinburgh West and Mid Dunbartonshire.
These figures take into account the new boundaries.
A separate Norstat poll, conducted by The Sunday Times for Scotland only, predicts Labour will hold a four-point lead over the SNP.
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Norstat interviewed 1,050 people aged 16 and over in Scotland between 11 and 14 June.
The data showed that 34% of those surveyed would vote Labour and 30% would vote SNP, up 1% from the previous survey.
A Survation poll predicts the Liberal Democrats will win 56 seats across the UK, barely meaning the Conservatives will remain the main opposition party in the House of Commons.
The survey of 22,000 people was conducted between May 31 and June 13, the period during which Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK.
The poll, which predicts Farage’s party will win seven seats, also suggests that he will narrowly defeat the Conservative candidate Giles Watling in Clacton, 31% to 29%.
The poll shows Labour is set to win a number of seats for the first time, including Tatton in Cheshire, which was held by former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne from 2001 to 2017.
Opinion polls suggest that under the single-member constituency system, Labour would win 70% of the seats in the new Parliament (456) with just 40% of the total vote.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are not expected to win as many votes as they did in 2019, but they are expected to win five times as many seats as in 2019, as their support is more concentrated in seats that are within their reach.